The tariff war took a sudden turn, with SHFE aluminum and alumina fluctuating upward. [SMM Aluminum Futures Brief]

View SMM Aluminum Product Quotes, Data, and Market Analysis

SMM, April 23:

Today, the most-traded SHFE aluminum 2506 contract opened at 19,765 yuan/mt, with a high of 19,895 yuan/mt, a low of 19,730 yuan/mt, and closed at 19,860 yuan/mt, up 0.53%. The trading volume was 157,000 lots, and the open interest was 203,000 lots.

SMM Comment: Macro-wise, the domestic macro-positive sentiment remains unchanged, but the impact of the US tariff war persists, leading to a strong wait-and-see sentiment among investors. Fundamentally, the destocking of domestic aluminum ingot inventory supports spot premiums, providing a strong bottoming effect for aluminum futures, with the futures market fluctuating. In terms of aluminum consumption, the overall operating rate of the aluminum processing sector has seen a slight correction, with the exception of aluminum wire and cable, where the operating rate has slightly weakened. Moreover, subsequent orders are expected to decline, limiting the upward momentum of aluminum prices. In the short term, domestic aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate, and as domestic aluminum demand transitions into the off-season, the price center may show a pullback trend.

Today, the most-traded alumina 2509 contract opened at 2,806 yuan/mt, with a high of 2,866 yuan/mt, a low of 2,806 yuan/mt, and closed at 2,862 yuan/mt, up 1.49%. The trading volume was 345,000 lots, and the open interest was 217,000 lots.

SMM Comment: Due to the concentrated maintenance of alumina refineries in April, the operating capacity of alumina has continued to decline. As of last week, the operating capacity of alumina dropped to 82.88 million mt/year, leading to a tightening of alumina supply in the short term, which has slowed the decline in alumina prices, with a slight rebound in northern alumina prices. Recently, maintenance at some enterprises has gradually ended, and new maintenance and production cuts have also occurred. In the short term, prices are expected to fluctuate. As maintenance gradually ends and new capacities are put into operation, the operating capacity of alumina is expected to rebound, but in the medium and long term, alumina prices will still face pressure.

[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research decisions. Clients should make decisions cautiously and not use this as a substitute for independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.]